Message-ID: <28904861.1075863438942.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Mon, 20 Aug 2001 12:45:02 -0700 (PDT)
From: j.kaminski@enron.com
To: a..roberts@enron.com
Subject: FW: GPCM News: 8/20/01:  RBAC Finalizing Schedule in Houston: Oil
 Companies Find Output Targets Elusive: NG Futures Dip: Gulf Pines Pipeline
 Plan: NG Market Ponders Storage Report: Ziff Conference
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X-From: Kaminski, Vince J </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=VKAMINS>
X-To: Roberts, Mike A. </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Mrobert>
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Mike,

Take a look at the comment on AGA.

Vince

 -----Original Message-----
From: =09"Robert E. Brooks" <rebrooks@earthlink.net>@ENRON [mailto:IMCEANOT=
ES-+22Robert+20E+2E+20Brooks+22+20+3Crebrooks+40earthlink+2Enet+3E+40ENRON@=
ENRON.com]=20
Sent:=09Monday, August 20, 2001 11:51 AM
To:=09'GPCM Distribution'
Subject:=09GPCM News: 8/20/01:  RBAC Finalizing Schedule in Houston: Oil Co=
mpanies Find Output Targets Elusive: NG Futures Dip: Gulf Pines Pipeline Pl=
an: NG Market Ponders Storage Report: Ziff Conference


RBACFinalizing Schedule in Houston
=20
Bob Brookswill be in Houstonnext week from Tuesday, August 28 through Thurs=
day, August 30.  A few time slots are available on Thursday the 30th in the=
 late morning and early afternoon.  Please contact Bob at 323-663-4831 or b=
y e-mail at rebrooks@rbac.com  if you would like to schedule an appointment=
.
=20
From http://www.enerfaxgold.com :
=20
Oil Companies Find Output Targets Elusive =20
    Big oil companies are failing to meet production growth targets because=
=20
they are using up mature fields faster than they can find and develop big=
=20
enough new ones to replace them, according to analysts. ExxonMobil, Shell,=
=20
and Chevron have all missed output targets, despite the incentive of two=20
years of high oil prices. ExxonMobil planned a 3% annual growth target last=
=20
year but its output for the second quarter of 2001 was flat versus a year=
=20
ago. Shell reported that its 2nd quarter production increased by only 1%,=
=20
well short of the 5% target. Depletion from existing oil fields runs at an=
=20
average rate of about 5% per year, and that has to be replaced by an=20
equivalent amount of new production just to keep output steady. From 1998 t=
o=20
2000 the six biggest publicly traded companies largely failed to replace th=
e=20
oil and natural gas they produced with new reserves, after stripping out th=
e=20
effect of acquisitions and revisions, according to Andersen management=20
consulting. BP posted one of the best performances, replacing 200% of its=
=20
natural gas production and 86% of its oil. Shell replaced only 42% of its=
=20
natural gas and 55% of its oil, according to Andersen. BP has set the most=
=20
ambitious production growth target of 5.5% for this year up 7% for the long=
er=20
term.
=20
From http://www.enerfax.com (Sunday, August 19, 2001):
=20
Natural Gas Futures Dip Lower
    Natural gas futures for September delivery on the NYMEX dipped $0.064 l=
ower Friday to $3.303 per MMBtu as traders squared short positions now that=
 Tropical Storm Chantal will miss the GulfCoast. The October contract lost =
$0.081 to $3.334 per MMBtu. Tropical Storm Chantal will affect the YucatanP=
eninsulaearly this week and then move into the central Gulf but is a noneve=
nt. Some traders wanted their positions cleared in preparation for next wee=
k's AGA storage report as they do not trust last week's reported build of j=
ust 3 Bcf, and believe that the AGA may report a higher build this week to =
compensate. A lot of traders got burned by last week's report and are begin=
ning to doubt the whole system. But, others look at the data as just a one-=
week blip brought about by a crescendo of events that no longer exist and d=
o represent not a long-term shift. However, if Wednesday's AGA injection is=
 low again this week, look for the market to rally to a higher level, but i=
n the meantime it will be controlled by the storm entering the Gulf of Mexi=
co. Look for support in the $3.15-$3.20 range and again at $3.00. Resistanc=
e is pegged at $3.40 and again around $3.60. Natural gas for next day deliv=
ery across the USand Canadawas generally $0.10 - $0.20 lower Friday. Natura=
l gas for next day delivery at the Henry hub dropped $0.20 to $3.24 per MMB=
tu.
=20
Gulf South Hold Open Season for Gulf Pines Pipeline=20
   =20
    Gulf South Pipeline is planning to build a pipeline extending from Mobi=
leBayto North Carolinaif it receives enough interest. An open season for ca=
pacity on the Gulf Pines Pipeline is being currently being held. Gulf South=
 Pipeline, formerly Koch Gateway Pipeline, is owned by Entergy-Koch. If com=
pleted, Gulf Pines would be 600 - 700 miles long, and would extend through =
Georgia, South Carolinaand North Carolina. Anticipating an in-service date =
of summer 2004, Gulf South is soliciting binding and non-binding bids for c=
apacity on Gulf Pines through September 19th. The pipeline would offer an i=
nterconnection with Gulf South near MobileBay, allowing customers to source=
 supply from Texasand Louisianaas well as from MobileBay. The Gulf South sy=
stem also offers links to major storage and supply hubs.
=20
Gas Daily reports this proposed pipeline may have a capacity of 1 bcf per d=
ay.  It also gives the following website for additional information:  http:=
//www.gulfpinespipeline.com .
=20
Natural Gas Market Ponders Storage Report
 =20
    While some were questioning the accuracy of this week's astonishingly l=
ow natural gas storage report, others blamed Tropical Storm Barry and highe=
r demands from new power generation load. However, both the futures and cas=
h markets jumped. Futures closed up $0.374 the day the report was announced=
, and the cash market rose $0.20 - $0.40 the day after. Some chose to not b=
elieve the 3 Bcf storage fill reported by the AGA, chalking it up to bad da=
ta. The average amount injected during a week in August is over 60 Bcf. The=
 prior week's fill was 80 Bcf. Factoring in Barry and the prolonged heat wa=
ve that week, the market had been expecting a somewhat lower number, but al=
l had predicted something above 50 Bcf. There are various reports and theor=
ies. Buyers for northeastern utilities said they had all injected and were =
shocked by the minus 12 Bcf storage number reported for the East. They coul=
d not entirely dismiss it, however. They noted that in the last 4 years all=
 the new plants that have been built are natural gas only facilities. Last =
week could have been a good indication of what that could mean to the marke=
t. The AGA says they checked and re-checked when they came up with the unbe=
lievable number. The AGA's numbers have always lined up with the more exten=
sive EIA reports. It is possible that a number of factors came together all=
 at once, with the impact of Barry on production and an higher generation l=
oads because of Eastern heat wave. However, the curve in the cash market ha=
s been going down. That may mean that if there is a market opportunity to m=
ove volumes from storage to a consumer right now, that could be done, assum=
ing 4 or 5 weeks later it could be replaced at the same price or maybe even=
 less. Also, there is speculation that the pipelines were re-packing their =
lines with volumes out of storage because of a sudden draw down.
=20
Ziff Energy Group to Hold Conference In Portland
=20
Current Realities, Future Expectations
Pacific NorthwestGas Strategies Conference
October 2,2001Portland,Oregon(at the Hilton Portland)
Hear Commissioner Wilson Condon, State of Alaska, describe how Alaskagas su=
pply will energize the Pacific Northwestsupply portfolio. And let Joe Marus=
hack, VP, ANS Gas Commercialization for Phillips Alaska, tell you about
the plans to make these supplies a reality.
Get additional gas supply updates from Art Eastly, President & CEO, Canadia=
n Forest Oil Ltd. (NWT) and Lanny Outlaw, President & CEO, Western Gas Reso=
urces (Rockies).
Our keynote speaker on transportation will be Michael Stewart, Executive VP=
,Westcoast Gas Pipeline. Also discussing pipeline expansions will be: Peter=
 Lund, PG&E Transmission, NW; Kirk Morgan, Williams Gas Pipeline West; Dona=
ld Zinko, Colorado Interstate Gas; and Randy Jespersen, BC Gas Utility Ltd.
You'll also have an opportunity to hear the latest on Questar's new salt ca=
vern storage facility - available to the PNW - from Questar's Gary Schmitt.
Find out views on future demand growth in the PNW from keynote speaker Dick=
 Reiten, Chairman & CEO, NW Natural. Hear how the Bonneville Power Administ=
ration plans to reconnect with its supply contracts from Acting Administrat=
or & CEO, Steve Wright. Also hear what Paula Pyron, Executive Director, NW =
Industrial Gas Users, has to say about her constituents' needs.
For more information please visit:
http://www.ziffenergyconferences.com
call 1-800-853-6252,
or email us at gasconference@ziffenergy.com=20
=20
Bob Brooks
GPCM Natural Gas Market Forecasting System
http://gpcm.rbac.com
